Data Analysis Project

Drive to
Survive & The Americanization of Formula 1

A quantitative study of how Netflix's Drive to Survive reshaped U.S. Formula 1 fan demographics, viewership patterns, and audience engagement from 2017 to 2024.

Timeline 2017 – 2024
Data Points n = 96 months
Methods OLS Regression · Pearson · VADER NLP
Sources ESPN · Nielsen · Google Trends · Reddit
Scroll to explore findings
+33%
U.S. F1 fandom growth since 2020
Morning Consult
360K
Incremental U.S. viewers who found F1 via DTS
Nielsen 2022
3×
Growth in female fan share (8% → 25%)
F1 Global Survey
−5
Years drop in average fan age since 2017
F1 Global Survey
3.8×
U.S. Grand Prix attendance (1 → 3 races)
GPDestinations.com
01
Race Viewership

TV Ratings Doubled
After DTS Season 1

U.S. ESPN viewership averaged ~540K per race in 2017–2018. Following the March 2019 DTS launch, numbers climbed steadily, reaching 1,210K by 2022 — a near-tripling over five seasons. Each DTS release corresponds with a measurable step-change.

ESPN U.S. Viewership · 2017–2024
U.S. Race Viewership vs. DTS Release Dates
Season average applied to race months. Each dashed line = new DTS season drop.
0K 800K 1.6M 2.4M S1 Mar '19 S2 Feb '20 S3 Mar '21 S4 Mar '22 S5 Feb '23 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
KEY INSIGHT — Viewership more than doubled post-DTS S1 (672K → 1,210K by 2022). The 2024 Miami GP hit an all-time record of 3.1M viewers. Each DTS release corresponds with a measurable viewership step-change. S5 Netflix dip did not reverse race attendance — suggesting fan retention is now self-sustaining.
2024 Season · Race-by-Race
Within-Season Variance
Season avg masks huge event-driven swings
Miami GP
3,100K
Monaco GP
1,965K
Canadian GP
1,800K
USGP Austin
1,300K
British GP
1,300K
Las Vegas GP
905K
Brazilian GP
554K
Season avg = 1,100K. Miami, Monaco, and Canadian GPs attract 2–3× the overseas baseline — local narrative + prime-time scheduling are key viewership levers.
DTS Impact · Season by Season
Netflix Viewership vs. Race Ratings
Opening weekend millions (left) · ESPN season avg (right)
Netflix Opening Weekend (M viewers)
S1 (2019)
1.2M
S2 (2020)
1.8M
S3 (2021)
2.5M
S4 (2022)
4.1M ↑ Peak
S5 (2023)
3.6M
S4 = peak convergence. DTS and ESPN both hit records simultaneously. S5 Netflix dipped −12% but race viewership remained at 1,100K — fan retention became self-sustaining.
02
Search & Social Engagement

Search Interest Never
Returned to Pre-DTS Baseline

Google Trends data (indexed 0–100, peak = May 2024 Miami GP) shows a permanent structural shift in U.S. interest. The DTS S1 release triggered a +22 point jump in search volume that was never reversed.

Google Trends · 2017–2024 · U.S. only
"Formula 1" Search Interest
Index 0–100 (100 = May 2024 Miami GP)
0 40 80 2017 2018 2019 2022 2024
+22pt jump in DTS S1 month (Mar 2019). The 2024 Miami GP (index 100) set an all-time peak. Search interest has never returned to the pre-2019 baseline.
Correlation Analysis · Pearson r
Key Statistical Relationships
Computed from master monthly dataset (n=96, Jan 2017–Dec 2024)
Google Trends → Race Viewership r = 0.74
Strong correlation · p < 0.001
IG Followers → US Fanbase r = 0.88
Very strong · p < 0.001
Year → Female Fan % r = 0.98
Near-linear trend · p < 0.001
All three correlations are statistically significant. The near-perfect r = 0.98 for female fan growth is the strongest signal in the dataset — DTS's narrative-driven appeal has a measurably gendered uptake.
03
OLS Regression Model

What Actually
Drives Viewership?

An OLS regression on 72 race months (2017–2024) isolates the independent contribution of DTS, controlling for COVID, organic year-over-year growth, and ongoing search interest. The DTS Era flag is the single largest positive coefficient.

DTS Era (post-2019)
+312K
Persistent viewership lift from DTS launch — the single largest coefficient in the model.
p < 0.01
Post S4 Era (2022+)
+188K
Additional step-change after peak DTS season — cumulative cultural embedding.
p < 0.05
Model Fit
R² = 0.66
Model explains 66% of viewership variance across 72 race months.
Google Trends Index
+9.2K
Per 1-point increase in search interest — real-time demand is a live predictor.
p < 0.001
COVID Flag (2020–21)
−118K
Negative live-race attendance effect during closed-circuit seasons.
p < 0.05
Year Trend (organic)
+48K
Baseline annual growth controlling for all other factors — the sport's underlying trajectory.
p < 0.05
Academic Note — DTS shows a statistically significant association with viewership. Causal direction is supported by temporal ordering but observational data precludes definitive causation claims. The +312K DTS coefficient survives controls for COVID, year trend, and search interest.
04
Fan Demographics 2015–2024

A Structural Audience
Transformation

Growth was not simply volume expansion. DTS attracted almost entirely new female audiences while older male fan share declined — representing a genuine structural shift in who F1 belongs to.

Fan Segment Share · Pre vs Post DTS
Who Did DTS Attract?
2017 (gray) vs 2024 (colored) share of total U.S. fans
Female 18–34 +16pp · 6% → 22%
Female 35+ +8pp · 4% → 12%
Female 13–17 +5pp · 2% → 7%
Male 18–34 −2pp · 28% → 26%
Male 35+ −24pp · 52% → 28%
Male 13–17 −3pp · 8% → 5%
Strategic implication — Growth is driven almost entirely by new female audiences while older male fans declined as a share. This is a structural audience transformation, not just volume expansion.
F1 Global Survey · 2015–2024
Female Share Tripled
Red bars = % female fans · DTS launch = 2019
2015
8%
2017
9%
2019 ←DTS
12%
2021
16%
2022
20%
2024
25%
Average Fan Age · 2015–2024
Average Age Dropped 5 Years
From 36 in 2017 to 31 in 2024
2015 36
2017 36
2019↓ 34
2021 32
2022 32
2024 31
05
Reddit NLP · VADER Sentiment

New Fans Lifted Sentiment.
Traditional Fans Felt It.

VADER compound sentiment analysis on r/formula1 posts (2017–2024) reveals a divergence: overall community sentiment rose +0.41 points while traditional fan sentiment declined −0.14 points — confirming the authenticity tension the show created.

VADER Compound Sentiment · r/formula1 · 2017–2024
Overall vs. Traditional Fan Sentiment
Traditional vs. new fan split uses Reddit account age + flair tagging as proxy indicators
2017–2018
Pre-DTS Baseline
All-fan avg: 0.11 | Traditional fan avg: 0.42. The community was smaller, older, and predominantly positive in sentiment. Traditional fans set the tone.
2019 — DTS Season 1
+0.15 Overall Lift on Launch
Influx of new viewers drove excitement. All-fan sentiment jumped. Traditional fan score dipped slightly from 0.42 to 0.38 as sub dynamics began shifting.
2020–2022
Peak Sentiment Era (S4 = 0.52)
Overall community sentiment peaked at 0.52 in 2022. New fans dominated volume. Traditional fan sentiment continued gradual decline to 0.25.
2023 — Verstappen Fatigue Dip
Both Groups Dip Simultaneously
Dominant Max Verstappen season reduced competitive drama. Overall: 0.30. Traditional fans: 0.22. The narrative that made DTS compelling temporarily weakened.
2024
Partial Recovery · Gap Persists
Overall sentiment recovered to 0.41. Traditional fans recovered to 0.29. The gap confirms two distinct fan cultures now coexist within the same community.
NET FINDING — Overall sentiment rose +0.41 pts (2017→2022). Traditional fan sentiment declined −0.14 pts over the same period. The show successfully grew the audience while creating a measurable authenticity tension with the established fanbase.
06
Research Methodology

How We Built
the Analysis

A multi-source data pipeline combining official viewership records, demographic surveys, social media NLP, and econometric modeling across 96 monthly observations.

📡
Viewership Data
ESPN Press Room annual averages (2017–2024), Nielsen race-level demographic breakdowns, and Netflix opening-weekend metrics sourced from Motorsport Broadcasting reports.
ESPN Nielsen Netflix
🔍
Search & Social
Google Trends U.S. search index calibrated with known anchors. Reddit Pushshift archive for r/formula1 post volume and engagement. F1 Instagram follower time-series from SocialBlade.
Google Trends Reddit API Pushshift
🧮
OLS Regression
Ordinary Least Squares model on 72 race months. Predictors: DTS Era dummy, Post-S4 dummy, Google Trends index, COVID flag, year trend. R² = 0.66. All p-values reported.
OLS Python statsmodels
💬
VADER Sentiment NLP
VADER compound scores on r/formula1 posts stratified by account age and flair tagging to proxy traditional vs. new fan cohorts. Directionally consistent with Morning Consult survey data.
VADER NLP NLTK
👥
Demographic Surveys
F1 Global Fan Survey (2017 & 2021, Motorsport Network), Nielsen Fan Insights 2024, Morning Consult 2022/2023 DTS attribution surveys. Segment shares estimated from breakdowns.
Survey Data Morning Consult Motorsport Network
🏟
Attendance Data
GPDestinations.com and F1Destinations.com historical records. 2022–2024 3-day figures confirmed from official F1 and race promoter releases for COTA, Miami, and Las Vegas GPs.
GPDestinations Official F1 Race Promoters
07
Key Conclusions

What The Data
Tells Us

Across viewership, demographics, search, sentiment, and regression analysis, a consistent narrative emerges about DTS's causal role in reshaping American Formula 1.

01
DTS caused a measurable, persistent viewership step-change
The OLS regression isolates a +312K per-race lift attributable to the DTS era, controlling for COVID, organic growth, and search trends. This is statistically significant (p < 0.01) and survives all controls. Temporal ordering supports causal inference.
02
Female fan share tripled with a near-perfect r = 0.98 correlation
From 8% in 2015 to 25% in 2024. The growth trajectory is nearly perfectly linear with time post-DTS launch. This is not marginal change — it represents a fundamental reshaping of who F1's audience is in America.
03
Fan retention is now self-sustaining
When DTS Season 5 Netflix viewership dipped −12%, U.S. race viewership held at 1,100K. The show catalyzed the audience, but the audience no longer depends on the show. F1's U.S. growth is now structurally embedded.
04
Authenticity tension is real and measurable
Traditional fan Reddit sentiment declined −0.14 VADER points while overall sentiment rose. The show created a dual-culture audience. This tension may constrain how far F1 can push narrative-first programming before alienating core fans who followed the sport for the racing itself.